Who Wouldn't Pay A Penny For A Sports Car?

The right strategy doesn't guarantee advantage in auctions, real estate or stock market

Who wouldn't pay a penny for a sports car? That's the mentality some popular online auctions take advantage of -- the opportunity to get an expensive item for very little money.

Lotus Super 7

Credit: Wikipedia 

In a study of hundreds of lowest unique bid auctions, Northwestern University researchers asked a different question: Who wins these auctions, the strategic gambler or the lucky one? The answer is the lucky. But, ironically, it's a lucky person using a winning strategy.

The researchers found that all players intuitively use the right strategy, and that turns the auction into a game of pure chance. The findings, published by the journal PLoS One, provide insight into playing the stock market, real estate market and other gambles.

"There are many contexts in which we think we are smart and at an advantage, such as buying real estate as prices start moving up," said Luís Amaral, an author of the paper. "But we don't realize we are competing against people doing the same thing. The advantage is gone, and it becomes a game of chance. So you better enjoy the process."

Amaral is a professor of chemical and biological engineering in the McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science and an Early Career Scientist with the Howard Hughes Medical Institute.

He and colleagues Filippo Radicchi and Andrea Baronchelli studied public data on 600 online auctions in Australia and Europe, played by 10,000 different auction participants with a total of 200,000 individual bids. (Lowest unique bid auctions occur all around the world, including in the U.S.) The data allowed the researchers to analyze in a systematic way what is going on in each auction.

The work of Nobel Laureate John Nash on game theory is very relevant to these auctions, Amaral said. An online auction is a classic game -- you have some information and you try to guess what other people are doing, and, based on that guess, you try to define your best strategy.

In a lowest unique bid auction, participants place bids for a relatively valuable item, such as a car or boat, in an attempt to have the lowest unmatched bid at the time the auction ends. The lowest bid is one cent, and the participant pays a fee, often a dollar, for each bid. After placing a bid, the participant is told if his or her bid currently is winning. If not, many bid again. Hundreds of times. On average, the auctioneer earns double the cost of the item being auctioned while participants can pay hundreds of dollars to lose.

The researchers conducted a computer simulation and identified what the optimal strategy is in lowest unique bid auctions. They found the strategy is a "bursty" one: consecutive bid values initially are close to each other, and then there is a "long jump" to another area of the bid space where more bid values are placed close to each other. And the pattern is repeated.

For example, an auction participant might place a bid, say of 8 cents. Then he places a number of nearby bids, 5, 6 and 7 cents, as well as 9, 10 and 11 cents. Then he makes a large leap to a different area, placing a bid of 47 cents and also placing several bids around that number. (Remember, every time he places a bid, he pays a fee.)

This mixed strategy combines exploitation (taking small steps in one area) and exploration (taking a big step to a new area). It is a smart strategy that gives you a better chance of winning, but the researchers discovered all the other participants have figured it out, too, wiping out any advantage to individuals.

"We couldn't identify a single person who was not using this strategy," Amaral said.

The "bursty" optimal strategy, he said, is similar to what an animal foraging for scarce food employs. An albatross, for example, has a vast ocean to explore, so it focuses its fishing in a small area for a time and then moves a great distance to try another area. Then it repeats this pattern.

In lowest unique bid auctions, people like to win and become overly optimistic about the amount of money they will lose. They rationally enter the auction to try to win a valuable item for a low price, but then they go on to irrationally stay in the auction -- which is just a game of chance -- and bid too much.

"At some point people will stop playing these online auctions," Amaral said. "Humans are smart about recognizing the deck is stacked against them."

The title of the PLoS One paper authored by Amaral, Radicchi and Baronchelli is "Rationality, Irrationality and Escalating Behavior in Lowest Unique Bid Auctions." Radicchi is a former postdoctoral fellow in Amaral's lab who now is at the University Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Spain. Baronchelli is with the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain.

Contacts and sources: 

Megan Fellman 
Northwestern University

Obesity Raises Death Risk Tied To Sleeping Pills

Obesity appears to significantly increase the risk of death tied to sleeping pills, nearly doubling the rate of mortality even among those prescribed 18 or fewer pills in a year, researchers reported Friday. New findings delivered at American Heart Association meeting also show heightened risk in men and young adults

"Obesity emerged as a marker of increased vulnerability," said Robert Langer, M.D., M.P.H., at the annual American Heart Association's Epidemiology and Prevention | Nutrition, Physical Activity and Metabolism 2012 Scientific Sessions in San Diego.

"The associations between sleeping pills and increased mortality were present, and relatively stronger, even in people aged 18 to 54," said Dr. Langer, a family physician and epidemiologist with the Jackson Hole Center for Preventive Medicine in Jackson, Wyo.

"Obese patients appear particularly vulnerable, perhaps through interaction with sleep apnea," said study co-author Daniel Kripke, M.D., a psychiatrist with Scripps Clinic's Viterbi Family Sleep Center in San Diego.

He noted that sleeping pills were previously associated with more and longer pauses in breathing in people with sleep apnea.

Among obese patients, use of sleeping pills was associated with about one extra death per year for every 100 people who were prescribed the medications, Dr. Langer said.

Additionally, men who took sleeping pills were about twice as likely to die as women who received the medications, after accounting for other factors, he said.

Friday's findings were the latest to emerge from a Scripps Clinic-led study of almost 40,000 patients, which was initially published in late February in the open-access online journal BMJ Open.

(View the paper here: http://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/2/1/e000850.full)

The research was the first to show that eight of the most commonly used hypnotic drugs were associated with increased hazards of mortality and cancer, including the popularly prescribed medications zolpidem (known by the brand name Ambien) and temazepam (also known as Restoril), Dr. Kripke said.

Those drugs had been thought to be safer than older hypnotics because of their shorter duration of action but were found to have associations with excess deaths no different from the older drugs they have largely replaced.

In order to eliminate the possibility that other factors led to the results, study participants who were prescribed sleeping pills were matched with control patients of similar ages, gender and health who did not receive hypnotics.

The newest findings were delivered by Dr. Langer during an oral session at the American Heart Association conference that focused on drug safety.

For obese patients in the study who had an average body mass index of 38.8, the risk of death was 8.1 times higher on average among those who were prescribed the smallest number of pills (18 or fewer annually) when compared with similar study participants who did not take the medications. The mortality rate was 9.3 times higher on average among obese patients receiving the largest number of pills (132 or more annually).

Death was 4.6 times more likely on average among all patients who received any amount of sleeping pills.

The study cast a shadow over a growing segment of the pharmaceutical industry that expanded by 23 percent in the United States from 2006 to 2010 and generated about $2 billion in annual sales.

Using data stored in an electronic medical record that has been in place for more than a decade, the researchers obtained information on almost 40,000 patients cared for by a large integrated health system in the northeastern United States.

The research included 10,531 sleeping pill users who were prescribed the medications for an average of 2.5 years and 23,674 control participants who were not prescribed the drugs. Information came from outpatient clinic visits conducted between Jan. 1, 2002, and Sept. 30, 2006.

"It is important to note that our results are based on observational data, so even though we did everything we could to ensure their validity, it's still possible that other factors explain the associations," said co-author Lawrence E. Kline, D.O., who is medical director of the Viterbi Family Sleep Center. "We hope our work will spur additional research in this area using information from other populations."

Funding for the study came from the Scripps Health Foundation and other philanthropic sources.

The research should prompt physicians to consider alternatives to hypnotic medications, Dr. Kline said.

Clinicians at the Viterbi Family Sleep Center focus on cognitive therapy that teaches patients to better understand the nature of sleep. For example, some people suffering from insomnia might require less than the eight hours of sleep commonly recommended for each night.

Patients also can benefit from practicing good sleeping habits and relaxation, as well as taking advantage of the body's natural clock, which is driven by the rising and setting of the sun, Dr. Kline said. "Understanding how to use the circadian rhythm is a very powerful tool that doesn't require a prescription," he said.

When insomnia results from emotional problems such as depression, doctors should treat the psychological disorder rather than prescribe sleeping pills that could prove to be harmful, Dr. Kripke said.

Contacts and sources: 

Keith Darce
Scripps Health

Nano Rescues Skin: Shrimp Shell Nanotech For Wound Healing And Anti-Aging Face Cream

Shrimp shell nanotech for wound healing and anti-aging face cream

Nanoparticles containing chitosan have been shown to have effective antimicrobial activity against Staphylococcus saprophyticus and Escherichia coli. The materials could be used as a protective wound-healing material to avoid opportunistic infection as well as working to facilitate wound healing.

Chitosan is a natural, non-toxic and biodegradable, polysaccharide readily obtained from chitin, the main component of the shells of shrimp, lobster and the beak of the octopus and squid. Its antimicrobial activity is well known and has been exploited in dentistry to prevent caries and as preservative applications in food packaging. It has even been tested as an additive for antimicrobial textiles used in clothing for healthcare and other workers.

Now, Mihaela Leonida of Fairleigh Dickinson University, in Teaneck, New Jersey and colleagues writing in the International Journal of Nano and Biomaterials describe how they have prepared nanoparticles of chitosan that could have potential in preventing infection in wounds as well as enhancing the wound-healing process itself by stimulating skin cell growth.

The team made their chitosan nanoparticles (CNP) using an ionic gelation process with sodium tripolyphosphate. This process involves the formation of bonds between polymers strands, a so-called cross-linking process. Conducted in these conditions it precludes the need for complex preparative chemistry or toxic solvents. CNP can also be made in the presence of copper and silver ions, known antimicrobial agents. The researchers' preliminary tests show the composite materials to have enhanced activity against two representative types of bacteria.

Understanding the mechanism of inhibition of bacteria by these particles may lead to the preparation of more effective antibacterial agents. The team has also demonstrated that the CNP have skin regenerative properties in tests on skin cell fibroblasts and keratinocytes, in the laboratory, which might even have implications for anti-aging skin care products.

Contacts and sources:

Mihaela D. Leonida
Inderscience Publishers

"Nanocomposite materials with antimicrobial activity based on chitosan" in Int. J. Nano and Biomaterials, 2012, 3, 316-334

Lyme Disease Surge Predicted For The Northeastern US

Boom-and-bust acorn crops and a decline in mice leave humans vulnerable to infected ticks

Millbrook, NY – The northeastern U.S. should prepare for a surge in Lyme disease this spring. And we can blame fluctuations in acorns and mouse populations, not the mild winter. So reports Dr. Richard S. Ostfeld, a disease ecologist at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies in Millbrook, NY.

What do acorns have to do with illness? Acorn crops vary from year-to-year, with boom-and-bust cycles influencing the winter survival and breeding success of white-footed mice. These small mammals pack a one-two punch: they are preferred hosts for black-legged ticks and they are very effective at transmitting Borrelia burgdorferi, the bacterium that causes Lyme disease.

Acorns  

Photo by Lori Quillen 

“We had a boom in acorns, followed by a boom in mice. And now, on the heels of one of the smallest acorn crops we’ve ever seen, the mouse population is crashing,” Ostfeld explains. Adding, “This spring, there will be a lot of Borrelia burgdorferi-infected black-legged ticks in our forests looking for a blood meal. And instead of finding a white-footed mouse, they are going to find other mammals—like us.”

For more than two decades, Ostfeld, Cary Institute forest ecologist Dr. Charles D. Canham, and their research team have been investigating connections among acorn abundance, white-footed mice, black-legged ticks, and Lyme disease. In 2010, acorn crops were the heaviest recorded at their Millbrook-based research site. And in 2011, mouse populations followed suit, peaking in the summer months. The scarcity of acorns in the fall of 2011 set up a perfect storm for human Lyme disease risk.

White-footed mouse  

 

Photo by Rick Ostfeld 

Black-legged ticks take three bloodmeals—as larvae, as nymphs, and as adults. Larval ticks that fed on 2011’s booming mouse population will soon be in need of a nymphal meal. These tiny ticks—as small as poppy seeds—are very effective at transmitting Lyme to people. The last time Ostfeld’s research site experienced a heavy acorn crop (2006) followed by a sparse acorn crop (2007), nymphal black-legged ticks reached a 20-year high.

The May-July nymph season will be dangerous, and Ostfeld urges people to be aware when outdoors. Unlike white-footed mice, who can be infected with Lyme with minimal cost, the disease is debilitating to humans. Left undiagnosed, it can cause chronic fatigue, joint pain, and neurological problems. It is the most prevalent vector-borne illness in the U.S., with the majority of cases occurring in the Northeast.

Ostfeld says that mild winter weather does not cause a rise in tick populations, although it can change tick behavior. Adult ticks, which are slightly larger than a sesame seed, are normally dormant in winter but can seek a host whenever temperatures rise several degrees above freezing. The warm winter of 2011-2012 induced earlier than normal activity. While adult ticks can transmit Lyme, they are responsible for a small fraction of tick-borne disease, with spring-summer nymphs posing more of a human health threat.

Past research by Ostfeld and colleagues has highlighted the role that intact forest habitat and animal diversity play in buffering Lyme disease risks. He is currently working with health departments in impacted areas to educate citizens and physicians about the impending surge in Lyme disease.

For more information and how environmental conditions set the stage for disease risk:

• Ostfeld, R. S. 2011. Lyme disease: The ecology of a complex system. Oxford University Press
• Keesing, F., J. Brunner, S. Duerr, M. Killilea, K. LoGiudice, K. Schmidt, H. Vuong and R. S. Ostfeld. 2009. Hosts as ecological traps for the vector of Lyme disease. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, Biological Sciences 276:3911-3916.
• Ostfeld, R. S., C. D. Canham, K. Oggenfuss, R. J. Winchcombe, and F. Keesing. 2006. Climate, deer, rodents, and acorns as determinants of variation in Lyme-disease risk. PLoS Biology 4(6):e145.
• Schauber, E. M., R. S. Ostfeld, and A. S. Evans, Jr. 2005. What is the best predictor of annual Lyme disease incidence: Weather, mice, or acorns? Ecol. Appl. 15:575-586

Contacts and sources:
Lori M. Quillen
Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies

Big Surprise! New Frog Species Found In Wilds Of New York City

In the wilds of New York City--or as wild as you can get that close to skyscrapers--scientists have found a new leopard frog species.

A new frog species has been discovered--in the midst of New York City's urban area.

 

Credit: Bill Curry

For years, biologists mistook it for a more widespread variety of leopard frog.

While biologists regularly discover new species in remote rainforests, finding this one in ponds and marshes--sometimes within view of the Statue of Liberty--is a big surprise, said scientists from the University of California, Los Angeles; Rutgers University; the University of California, Davis and the University of Alabama.

"For a new species to go unrecognized in this area is amazing," said UCLA biologist Brad Shaffer, formerly at UC Davis.

The new frog's range in New York and New Jersey is likely much smaller than it once was.

 

Credit: Cathy Newman et al.

Shaffer's research is funded by the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Division of Environmental Biology.

In recently published results in the journal Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution, Shaffer and other scientists used DNA data to compare the new frog to all other leopard frog species in the region.

"Many amphibians are secretive and very hard to find, but these frogs are pretty obvious animals," said Shaffer.

"This shows that even in the largest city in the U.S., there are still new and important species waiting to be discovered."

The researchers determined the frog is an entirely new species. The unnamed frog joins a crowd of more than a dozen distinct leopard frog species.

The newly identified wetland species likely once lived on Manhattan. It's now only known from a few nearby locations: Yankee Stadium in the Bronx is the center of its current range.

Lead paper author Cathy Newman, now of Louisiana State University, was working with Leslie Rissler, a biologist at the University of Alabama, on an unrelated study of the southern leopard frog species when she first contacted scientist Jeremy Feinberg at Rutgers University in New Jersey.

Feinberg asked if she could help him investigate some "unusual frogs" whose weird-sounding calls were different from those of other leopard frogs.

"There are northern and southern leopard frogs in that general area, so I was expecting to find one of those that for some reason had atypical behaviors or that were hybrids of both," Newman said.

"I was really surprised and excited once I started getting data back strongly suggesting it was a new species. It's fascinating in such a heavily urbanized area."

Feinberg suspected that the leopard-frog look-alike with the peculiar croak was a new creature hiding in plain sight.

The southern leopard frog is a look-alike with the new species.

 

Credit: Chris Camacho

Instead of the "long snore" or "rapid chuckle" he heard from other leopard frogs, this frog had a short, repetitive croak.

As far back as the late 1800s, scientists have speculated about these "odd" frogs.

"When I first heard these frogs calling, it was so different, I knew something was very off," Feinberg said.

"It's what we call a cryptic species: one species hidden within another because we can't tell them apart on sight. Thanks to molecular genetics, people are picking out species that would otherwise be ignored."

The results were clear-cut: the DNA was distinct, no matter how much the frogs looked alike.

"If I had one of these three leopard frogs in my hand, unless I knew what area it was from, I wouldn't know which one I was holding because they all look so similar," Newman said. "But our results showed that this lineage is very clearly genetically distinct."

Mitochondrial DNA represents only a fraction of the amphibian's total DNA, so Newman knew she needed to do broader nuclear DNA tests to see the whole picture and confirm the frog as a new species. She performed the work at UC Davis.

Habitat destruction, disease, invasive species, pesticides and parasites have all taken a heavy toll on frogs and other amphibians worldwide, said Rissler, currently on leave from the University of Alabama and a program director in NSF's Division of Environmental Biology.

Amphibians, she said, are great indicators of problems in our environment--problems that could potentially impact our health.

"They are a good model to examine environmental threats or degradation because part of their life history is spent in the water and part on land," Rissler said. "They're subject to all the problems that happen to these environments."

The findings show that even in densely-populated, well-studied areas, there are still new discoveries to be made, said Shaffer. And that the newly identified frogs appear to have a startlingly limited range.

"One of the real mantras of conservation biology is that you cannot protect what you don't recognize," Shaffer said. "If you don't know that two species are different, you can't know whether either needs protection."

The newly identified frogs have so far been found in scattered populations in northern New Jersey, southeastern mainland New York and on Staten Island.

Although they may extend into parts of Connecticut and northeastern Pennsylvania, evidence suggests they were once common on Long Island and other nearby regions.

They went extinct there in just the last few decades. "This raises conservation concerns that must be addressed," said ecologist Joanna Burger of Rutgers University.

"These frogs were probably once more widely distributed," Rissler said. "They are still able to hang on. They're still here, and that's amazing."

Until scientists settle on a name for the frog, they refer to it as "Rana sp. nov.," meaning "new frog species."

Contacts and sources:
Cheryl Dybas
National Science Foundation

Researchers Print Live Cells With A Standard Inkjet Printer

Researchers from Clemson University have found a way to create temporary holes in the membranes of live cells using a standard inkjet printer. The method will be published in JoVE, the Journal of Visualized Experiments, on March 16.

"We first had the idea for this method when we wanted to be able to visualize changes in the cytoskeleton arrangement due to applied forces on cells," said paper-author Dr. Delphine Dean.

 

Credit: Clemson University

She said other researchers have been using this method to print cells onto slides, but that they have only recently discovered that printing the cells causes the disruption in their membranes for a few hours. Creating temporary pores allow researchers to put molecules inside of cells that wouldn't otherwise fit, and study how the cells react.

"The authors have used an extremely innovative approach for bioprinting cells. Moreover, this approach can be used for applications other than cell printing," said JoVE Science Editor, Dr. Nandita Singh. "Matrix proteins can be printed onto substrates with this technique for cell patterning. This JoVE publication will make this approach simple and approachable and enable other labs to replicate the procedure."

The printer is modified by removing the paperfeed mechanism and adding a "stage" from which to feed the slides. The ink is replaced with a cell solution, and the cells are printed directly on to the slides.

Using this method, the researchers are able to process thousands of cells in a matter of minutes. Dr. Dean's team used the holes to introduce fluorescent molecules that illuminate the skeleton of the cell.

"We are actually interested in the cell mechanics of compressed cells. This method allows us to push on the cells and watch the response easily," said Dr. Dean. "We are interested in cardiovascular cells, and how they respond to mechanical force."

Dr. Dean chose to submit her method to JoVE, the only peer reviewed, PubMed-indexed science journal to publish all of its content in both text and video format, because, according to her, "until you've seen it done, it's hard to understand the process."

To watch the full video article, please click here: http://www.jove.com/video/3681/creating-transient-cell-membrane-pores-using-a-standard-inkjet-printer#
About The Journal of Visualized Experiments:

The Journal of Visualized Experiments (JoVE) is the first and only Pubmed and Medline indexed academic journal devoted to publishing research in the biological sciences in video format. Using an international network of videographers, JoVE films and edits videos of researchers performing new experimental techniques at top universities, allowing students and scientists to learn them much more quickly. As of January 2012 JoVE has released 59 monthly issues including over 1500 video-protocols on experimental approaches in developmental biology, neuroscience, microbiology and other fields.

URL: www.JoVE.com

Contacts and sources:
Katherine Scott
The Journal of Visualized Experiments

Nanopills Release Drugs Directly From The Inside Of Cells

UAB researchers developed a new vehicle to release proteins with therapeutic effects. The vehicles are known as "bacteria inclusion bodies", stable insoluble nanoparticles which are found normally in recombinant bacteria. Even though these inclusion bodies traditionally have been an obstacle in the industrial production of soluble enzymes and biodrugs, they were recently recognised to have large amounts of functional proteins with direct values in industrial and biomedical applications.

The research team led by Antoni Villaverde from the Institute of Biotechnology and Biomedicine (IBB) at UAB worked in collaboration with the spanish Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red en Bioingeniería, Biomateriales y Nanomedicina (CIBER-BBN) to verify the value of these nanoparticles as natural "nanopills" with a strong capacity to penetrate cells and carry out biological activities. The nanopill concept represents a new and promising platform for drug administration and illustrates the yet to be explored power of microbial materials in medicine.

The researchers, in a multidisciplinary study at UAB led by Dr Esther Vàzquez, packaged four proteins containing different therapeutic effects into experimental nanopills, the inclusion bodies of the bacteria Escherichia coli. They put the bacteria in contact with cell cultures of mammals under similar conditions to those found in real clinical pathologies, "sick" cells with low viability, and achieved to recover their activity.

Once the technology was licensed to Janus Developments, the tolerance of its administration in vivo was confirmed through experiments conducted by UAB researcher Ester Fernández. The results and detailed description of the "nanopill" were published in the last issue of the journal Advanced Materials.

The multidisciplinary study included researchers from IBB, the UAB Departments of Genetics and Microbiology and of Cell Biology, Physiology and Immunology, the CIBER-BBN, the CIBER-EHD (Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red en el Área temática de Enfermedades hepáticas y Digestivas), the firm Janus Developments, the Leibniz University of Hannover and the Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research in Germany.

The use of inclusion bodies as therapeutic agents was patented by UAB and CIBER-BBN (patent code: WO2010131117A1), and licensed to the biotechnology firm Janus Developments, which currently invests in the development of the product.

Contacts and sources:
Antoni Villaverde
Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona

How High Could Sea Level Rise As Planet Warms?

The seas are creeping higher as the planet warms. But how high could they go?

Projections for the year 2100 range from inches to several feet, or even more.

The sub-tropical islands of Bermuda and the Bahamas are two seemingly unlikely places scientists have gone looking for answers.

The cliffs and ancient reefs on Bermuda and the Bahamas have lured fossil-hunters for decades. The land on the Bahamas, for example, has a foundation of fossil coral; the stone is derived from the disintegration of age-old coral reefs and seashells.

New explanation for why beach deposits in the Bahamas are 70 feet above sea level.

 

Credit: Paul Hearty

These areas are now attracting scientists investigating global sea level rise.

By pinpointing where the shorelines stood on cliffs and coral reefs in the Bahamas and Bermuda during an extremely warm period 400,000 years ago, researchers hope to narrow the range of global sea-level projections for the future.

Will the fate of the Bahamas in a time of sea-level rise mirror that of other coastal locales?

 

Credit: Government of the Bahamas

After correcting for what they say was sinking of these islands at that time, scientists estimate that the seas rose 20 feet to 43 feet higher than today--up to a third less than previous estimates, though still a drastic change.

The study infers that the Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets collapsed during the ancient warm period, but that ice loss from the vast East Antarctic Ice Sheet was negligible.

The results are reported in this week's issue of the journalNature.

"Our research provides a simple explanation for high beach deposits [such as fossils in the Bahamas]," said the paper's lead author Maureen Raymo, a scientist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

Average global sea-level rose eight inches since the 1880s, and is currently rising an inch per decade, driven by thermal expansion of seawater and melting of glaciers and ice sheets, including the still mostly intact ice in Greenland and West Antarctica.

The islands of the Bahamas and their fossil cliffs contain clues to sea-level rise.

 

Credit: NASA

In its most recent report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated that the seas could rise up to two feet by 2100.

That number could go higher depending on the amount of ice melt and the quantity of greenhouse gas emissions.

The United Nations estimates a five feet sea-level rise would be enough to swamp 17 million people in low-lying Bangladesh alone.

The new study factors in the loading and unloading of ice from North America during the ice ages preceding the long-ago sea-level rise.

As the ice sheets grew, their weight pushed down the land beneath them while causing land at the edges--Bermuda and the Bahamas--to bulge upward, says Raymo.

Eleuthera in the Bahamas: echoes of ancient climate change reverberate there.

 

Credit: NASA

When the ice pulled back, the continent rebounded, and the islands sank.

"We're re-thinking many of our estimates of past sea-level rise now that we're more aware of the effects of unloading of ice," said Bil Haq, program director in the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Division of Ocean Sciences, which funded the research. "We now have a meaningful way of calculating the rebound.

"This study is a good example of collaboration between paleoceanography and geophysics to resolve an important issue: the question of future sea-level rise."

Will low-lying shorelines around the world--such as the Bahamas--someday be underwater?

 

Credit: Government of the Bahamas

Today, both Greenland and West Antarctica are losing mass in a warming world, but signals from East Antarctica are less clear.

Raymo said the research helps show that "catastrophic collapse" of the East Antarctic ice is probably not a threat today.

"However, we do need to worry about Greenland and West Antarctica."

Contacts and sources:
Cheryl Dybas
National Science Foundation

9 Nutty Irishmen To Celebrate On The 17th

Leave it to 2012 to make the drinkin'-est holiday of the year fall on a Saturday. St. Patrick's Day is upon us, and there's no doubt you'll be going out for a few green beers. You probably haven't let loose since New Year's, and now's your time to pick up the slack. From fiction to film to freaks, check out these nine nutty Irishmen who will put your raucous behavior to shame.

1. COLIN FARRELL

   Even though these days he's cleaned up his act, former late-night playboy and A-list Irish actor Colin Farrell once quipped, "The closest thing I have to a nutritionist is the Carslberg Beer Co." Even though he's now a dad who's nuttier about his children than his social life, Colin Farrell's past antics are a great model for the serious St. Patty's Day enthusiast.

2. BONO

   Famed U2 front man and activist Bono is definitely worth celebrating on St. Patty's Day. While he's not busy fighting AIDS and saving the planet, the crazy Irishman does things like buy plane tickets for his hats, film music videos on rooftops that get shut down by police, and get razzed by Irish cops when he's busking on Christmas (for charity, of course).

3. DENIS LEARY

   If you'll be overindulging on St. Patty's Day, consider nursing your hangover with some classic comedy. The crass and calamitous Irish-American has funny songs, movies, and books — or you could just go for a Rescue Me marathon. If you need inspiration while you're out on the town, Leary would recommend shouting póg mo thóin to any St. Patrick's day revelry haters. It means "kiss my a–" in Gaelic, and, according to Leary, it's "fun to say."

4. MICKEY O'NEIL

   This fictitious Irish gypsy from the 2000 Guy Ritchie film Snatch is played perfectly by Brad Pitt. O'Neil comes across as a degenerate punk, getting blackout drunk at his mother's wake, causing trouble, and starting fights — professional or otherwise.

5. CONAN O'BRIEN

   St. Patrick's Day is the perfect time to join Team Coco. You can theme your party after Conan Vs. Bear, or be just like the funnyman and get blitzed off of Irish Rickey's with your chick friend that has the cutest apartment, plays on Pinterest all day, and knows how to make a perfect souflee. For Coco, that friend is Martha Stewart.

6. GRAHAM NORTON

   If you're planning on taking some E and going to a St. Patty's Day rave, you've either really jumped the shark in your life, or you're taking after Graham Norton. The celebrated BBC talk show host and Irishman caused an uproar in 2006, when he mentioned that MDMA (street name: ecstasy) is "fantastic."

7. VIVIAN CAMPBELL

   This Irishman has rocked his way around the world, playing for Def Leppard, Thin Lizzy, Whitesnake, and being the original guitarist for the epic band Dio. If you're out and about this St. Patty's Day, make sure to celebrate this crazy awesome shredder by rocking "Rainbow in the Dark" on every jukebox you see during your pub crawls. Give the people what they want this March 17th. And what they want is face-rocking metal.

8. SAMUEL BECKETT

   "You're on Earth. There's no cure for that."
   "The end is in the beginning and yet you go on."
   "Nothing is funnier than unhappiness."
   "People are bloody ignorant apes."
   "I pause to record that I feel in extraordinary form. Delirium perhaps."
   Be you an existentialist or a mere insane person, try spending this St. Patrick's Day downing Irish Car Bombs and quoting the absurdist playwright's works, which include the bleak classic Endgame (recently and near-brilliantly interpreted by the Houston avant-garde Catastrophic Theatre) and perennial favorite Waiting for Godot.

9. OSCAR WILDE

   And if you're really getting literary this St. Patrick's Day, try to emulate the life of Irish writer Oscar Wilde. Certainly a wild one, the 19th century dandy brought the world such greats as The Importance of Being Earnest and The Picture of Dorian Gray. Living far beyond his means and known as a life-long party animal, Oscar Wilde could out-drink, out-wit, and out-class even the most hardy of the St. Patrick's Day revelers.

Contacts and sources:
Anne Gerding
http://www.toponlinecolleges.com/blog/2012/9-nutty-irishmen-to-celebrate-on-the-17th/ 

10 St. Patrick’s Day Toasts You Don’t Want To Hear

Top o' the mornin' to ya! St. Patrick's Day comes but once a year, and it's time to bust out your best Irish toasts. But, pause for a moment, party people. Make sure you're augmenting your fun times, not detracting from them with crappy speeches of dubious worth. Just because it's St. Patrick's Day, and Saturday night, and you're drunk, it doesn't mean that you've got any oratorial talent. Remember these overdone toasts before volunteering to speak, and you'll spare yourself (and everyone else) the grief of the Irish.

1. Anything In A Bad Irish Accent

   All toasts sound great coming from Irish people, especially if they're followed by a shot of Jameson. But if you're not Irish, don't pretend to be — especially on St. Patrick's Day. You're getting too old for the days of fake accents to be cute or in any way funny, unless you're a professional comedian. And if you're reading this list looking for toast ideas, it's damn near guaranteed that you're not.

2. An Irishman is never drunk as long as he can hold onto one blade of grass to keep from falling off the earth.

   Um, what?! This common Irish saying is often used as a toast, but what the heck does it mean? An Irishman, or anyone for that matter, is considered drunk if their blood alcohol content is over the legal limit. Also, if said Irishman was about to literally fall off the earth, it's highly unlikely that a blade of grass would help him, sober or not. Try slurring the words to your favorite U2 song rather than invoking the notion that gravity can't help even the bawdiest of drunks.

3. A Teary Dramatic Reading fromSnakes On A Plane

   One of the worst things you can be on St. Patrick's Day is a sad drunk. Worse still? If you stand up at the front of the bar, command everyone's attention, and do your best high school UIL oral interpretation version of the cinematic classic Snakes On A Plane. Think of it this way: if St. Patrick banished all the snakes from Ireland, no one will think twice about banishing you from the pub.

4. Kiss my Derry air!

   Derry (or Londonderry, as it's also known) is the second largest city in Northern Ireland. Don't be "that guy" — location puns can be funny, but this one is seriously played out. Play it safe and avoid going down this road on St. Patrick's Day. What's next? Dub(lin)step? Stick a County Cork in it? As you can see, the cheesy jokes go (whiskey) sour, and how.

5. A Slurred and Hiccupping Masterpiece From The Guy Drinking O'Douls

   It's not that you have to get drunk to celebrate St. Patrick's Day, it's that you don't want to be the world's biggest poseur. Unless you're in high school and you have to be one of the cool kids to impress your St. Patrick's Day sweetheart, don't fake being drunk. Even then don't do it. It's just not cool. Better advice? Don't buy O'Douls. If you don't drink and you want to party for Patty, try your hand at something constructive — instead of trying to impress the imbibers with your wit and wisdom. Hate to break it to you, kid, but if you're drinking O'Douls, you're probably a quart low on both.

6. There Once Was A Man From Nantucket…

   Especially if you're spending your St. Patrick's Day with co-workers or with your in-laws, maybe try not to repeat this crass limerick. Invoking gross imagery, especially if you're three sheets, may be funny — but this little poem from the 1927 masterpiece Immortalia: An Anthology of American Ballads, Sailors' Songs, Cowboy Songs, College Songs, Parodies, Limericks, and Other Humorous Verses and Doggerel is beyond the pale. And, by the way, just where the heck is Nantucket?

7. A Long-Winded Rendering of The Tiny Piece of Your Family History That May Or May Not Be From Ireland

   One of the most annoying qualities that a second, third, fourth, or fifth generation American can do is talk about their genealogy. No one cares if your great great grandmother had O-apostrophe in front of her name, or if you dyed your hair red to honor your (probably fictitious) ancestry. Family tree nerds and drunkards alike should be proud of whatever they think their heritage is, but clamoring for attention and waxing genealogical because you think your grandfather once had an Irish girlfriend or whatever will never go over well. See also: Bad Irish Accents.

8. Any Quote from Boondock Saints

   If you're still quoting Boondock Saints, Road to Perdition, or The Departed, be mindful that you're no longer thought of as cool, edgy, or in any way relevant. While Irishmen and bloodbaths deserve the silver screen, it's almost uncouth to regurgitate the tired pop culture references that got us through the beginning of the 21st century. Sidebar: no one likes your "veritas" tattoo, either. Give someone more reasonable a chance to "Cheers!"

9. Erin Go Braless!

   Stupid. Just stupid. Even if you have a friend named Erin, and even if you think she should go braless, this toast just isn't funny. No one cares that you know the Irish phrase that everyone else knows, and no one else cares that you know the most obvious joke to go along. Spend your St. Patrick's Day turning some other Gaelic phrases, or maybe just give up and drink to avoiding groan-worthy, borderline sexist moments.

10. Champagne for My Real Friends and Real Pain for My Sham Friends!

    Ugh. Everyone's heard it, everyone's said it — and it's probably even been your "About Me" on Facebook. If you're immature enough to make distinctions like these (or listen to Fall Out Boy), do everyone a favor and can it — especially if you're trying to celebrate St. Patrick's Day in socially acceptable style.

Contacts and sources:
Rose King
http://www.bestonlinecolleges.com/blog/2012/10-st-patricks-day-toasts-you-dont-want-to-hear/